Tabaković: Serbia stable amid global economic shifts

National Bank of Serbia Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković highlighted the IMF's January upward revision of the euro area's growth forecast for the current year, a positive signal for Serbia's key economic partners.

However, global conditions have since deteriorated.

The IMF estimates that a sustained 10 percent increase in oil prices would raise global inflation by 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1 to 0.2 percent.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also published projections indicating significant macroeconomic effects from increased oil prices.

Serbia responded immediately to energy market shocks with substantial measures protecting households and businesses.

Tabaković further referenced IMF analysis suggesting a fully functioning single market could increase EU productivity by around 20 percent and GDP per capita by approximately 35 percent over time.

She noted the technological advantage American companies hold over European ones, emphasizing the need to narrow this gap for productivity growth.

Governor Tabaković quoted the IMF's Executive Board assessment for Serbia in 2025, which praised 'prudent macroeconomic policies' and 'impressive results.'

It highlighted high FX reserves, substantial government deposits, and a resilient, well-capitalised banking sector as key supports.

Fiscal discipline is strictly maintained, and monetary policy remains cautious, preserving credibility.

Both Serbia and the IMF advocate for continuing sound monetary policy, noting Serbia's key policy rate aligns with the Taylor rule.

Tabaković contrasted this with IMF warnings for Europe, where public debt could approach 130 percent of GDP by 2040 without structural reforms.

Serbia's public debt, however, is below 45 percent of GDP, well below Maastricht criteria.