New factors reshape non-maturity deposit stability
A new BIS working paper reviews the stability of non-maturity deposits (NMDs) following the March-May 2023 banking turmoil. It finds that while traditional drivers persist, technological advancements and increased competition have influenced NMD behavior.
Digital shifts and market rivalry
The literature highlights technology's role in influencing non-maturity deposit (NMD) behavior, primarily by enhancing information dissemination rather than merely accelerating withdrawals for sophisticated depositors.
Social media platforms, for instance, can foster herd behavior and spread rumors, as observed during the Credit Suisse failure and Silicon Valley Bank run.
Concurrently, increased competition within the banking sector and from non-bank financial institutions has exacerbated NMD instability.
Easier transfers to alternative investments like money market funds have potentially strengthened the monetary policy transmission channel, leading to reduced depositor stability.
The review suggests that while technology facilitates faster information flow, its impact on actual withdrawal speed for large corporate deposits may not be dramatically new.
Enduring drivers, evolving landscape
The review confirms that established factors such as deposit insurance, depositor discipline, deposit concentration, and bank health fundamentals remain central to non-maturity deposit (NMD) stability.
These traditional drivers continue to shape depositor actions and overall bank funding resilience.
However, the paper also assesses how recent developments, including technological innovations, shifts in banking competition, and regulatory changes, have influenced NMD behavior.
While these newer factors have demonstrably affected NMD stability, the literature remains inconclusive on whether their net effect has resulted in fundamentally more volatile depositor behaviors compared to historical experience.
Old wine, new bottles?
Despite the extensive literature review, the paper's ultimate conclusion on the net effect of new factors on NMD stability remains frustratingly ambiguous.
This ambiguity limits clear policy implications, leaving supervisors with an incomplete picture of evolving deposit risks.
A more definitive stance or clearer framework for future research would have significantly enhanced its practical value.