Base rate cut to 15.75 percent as inflation slows to 9.3 percent
Governor Timur M Suleimenov said the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate by 50 basis points to 15.75 percent. It aims to lower inflation to 6.5-8.5 percent in 2027 and reach its 5 percent target during 2028.
Disinflation leaves persistent pressures
September annual inflation fell to 9.3 percent from 9.8 percent in August.
Food inflation eased from 9.5 to 8.5 percent, non-food inflation reached 11 percent and services inflation held at 8.9 percent.
Monthly inflation stayed at 0.6 percent: food prices fell 0.1 percent, while goods and services rose 1.1 and 1.0 percent.
Core and seasonally adjusted inflation were both 0.7 percent, versus 0.7 and 0.9 percent in August.
Household expectations fell from 12.1 to 11.8 percent; professionals projected 9.5 percent for 2026 and 8.3 percent for 2027.
Suleimenov attributed disinflation to monetary restraint, tenge appreciation, normalizing demand and joint government measures.
Persistent price pressures and upside risks warranted moderately tight conditions.
Growth meets external price pressure
January-September GDP grew 4.2 percent, or 5.4 percent excluding mining; oil output fell 8.3 percent.
Real investment rose 7 percent, non-resource investment excluding budget funding 25 percent and retail trade 4.5 percent.
August consumer lending grew 10.4 percent.
Fiscal stimulus remained a demand risk.
Global food prices rose 1.5 percent monthly and 5.8 percent annually; Brent exceeded $100. Russia held rates at 14 percent with inflation at 6.4 percent.
EU and US inflation reached 3.8 and 3.7 percent; the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve each raised rates 25 basis points.
Tariffs test the response
Suleimenov put the likelihood of another rate change before end-2026 at low levels.
Utility tariffs fell 14 percent in Q4 2025, creating a base effect that may lift annual inflation.
The bank will not counter direct tariff effects with rate increases, but will respond to second-round effects and use reserves and mirroring to absorb liquidity.