Federal Reserve study finds rising US educational mobility
A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reveals that both relative and upward educational mobility in the U.S. increased over the 20th century. This rise was particularly pronounced for historically disadvantaged groups and driven by public investments in education.
Mobility gains across the century
The study constructs two large-scale datasets to measure educational mobility for cohorts born in 1910–1919 and 1982–1997. It shows that both relative and upward educational mobility rose over the 20th century, with historically disadvantaged groups experiencing the largest gains.
For children of parents at the 25th percentile of educational distribution, expected rank rose from 36th to 38th percentile.
Black boys and girls saw 10 and 12 percentile gains respectively, and Asian boys and girls saw 12 and 14 percentile gains.
In contrast, upward mobility for White women barely increased, and for White men, it fell by 5 percentiles.
A widening gender gap was also observed, with girls seeing a 5 percentile point increase in upward mobility while boys saw a 1 percentile point decline.
Geography of opportunity converges
The paper also documents substantial geographic convergence in educational mobility across the 20th century.
Historically, upward mobility was uniformly lower throughout the South, with former slave states showing little to no upward mobility in the early 20th century.
In contrast, counties in the West, Northeast, and Industrial Midwest had very high rates.
By the late 20th century, upward mobility improved in almost every county in the South, while it fell in other regions.
This indicates that regional disparities lessened, and where children lived matters much less today.
Public education's enduring, evolving role
This paper provides crucial empirical evidence on the long-term impact of public education on social mobility, a topic often debated without robust data.
Its findings underscore the enduring relevance of public investment, even as the most impactful levels of education shift.
While the historical focus is valuable, the direct implications for contemporary policy challenges would benefit from further research on current trends and specific intervention strategies.