BIS study links Battle of Trafalgar to 1805 liquidity crisis
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BIS study links Battle of Trafalgar to 1805 liquidity crisis

A new Bank for International Settlements (BIS) working paper reveals how the 1805 Battle of Trafalgar triggered a severe global liquidity crisis. The study shows the battle cut off Europe's access to Latin American silver, leading to a sharp credit contraction and bank failures.

Silver shortage triggers credit collapse

The 1805 Battle of Trafalgar, a decisive British naval victory, inadvertently triggered a severe global liquidity crisis by severing continental Europe's access to Latin American silver.

This silver, primarily Spanish dollar coins, was the era's key high-powered money and ultimate safe asset for international settlement.

With Atlantic trade routes disrupted, a critical shortage of monetary silver ensued.

In Paris, the center of the turmoil, the Banque de France responded by drastically cutting its lending by nearly 50 percent within three months.

This deliberate tightening of credit, aimed at hoarding specie to restore the value of its banknotes, led to the failure of no less than 20 Parisian banks.

European financial and money markets experienced acute stress, marked by rising silver prices and disruptions in bills of exchange markets from Cádiz to Hamburg.

Lessons from a 200-year-old crisis

The 1805-1806 crisis illuminates enduring themes: the hierarchical nature of money, the need for credible protection from fiscal dominance, and the perverse effects of reserve accumulation during liquidity stress.

The Banque de France, only five years old and lacking credibility or a clear fiscal backstop, was forced to hoard silver.

This action, while protecting the Banque, exacerbated the continental liquidity shortage and triggered economic hardship.

The paper draws parallels to modern central bank behavior, such as the rise in gold's share of reserves after 2022 sanctions on Russia, and ongoing concerns about dollar liquidity reliability in times of crisis.

A timeless warning on safe assets

The study offers a compelling historical case for the fragility of global liquidity, even when backed by physical assets.

Its insights into central bank credibility and the unintended consequences of reserve hoarding remain acutely relevant for today's international monetary system.

This historical deep dive serves as a potent reminder that trust and resilient supply are paramount for any safe asset.

Source: The Trafalgar squeeze of global liquidity

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