Participants project policy rate rising to 2.75 percent in 2027

About 25 financial market participants answered the survey from September 23 to October 1, 2026.

Median year-end GDP growth forecasts were 1.6 percent for 2026 and 1.8 percent for 2027.

Median headline inflation forecasts were 3.0 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, and 2.0 percent five years ahead.

A negative output gap was reported by 92 percent; 8 percent saw no gap.

Median recession probabilities were 13, 20, 23 and 20 percent over successive six-month windows through 24 months.

Easing trade tensions was an upside risk for 88 percent, larger fiscal stimulus for 72 percent and decreasing geopolitical risks for 36 percent.

Downside risks were rising trade tensions at 88 percent, tighter monetary policy and tighter global financial conditions at 52 percent each.

Median Canadian bond yield forecasts for end-2026 were 3.20, 3.50, 3.90 and 4.25 percent for two-, five-, ten- and thirty-year maturities.

Corresponding end-2027 medians were 3.10, 3.45, 3.80 and 4.03 percent.

Median West Texas Intermediate oil forecasts fell from US$90 per barrel at end-2026 to US$75 at end-2027; the Canadian dollar rose from US$0.72 to US$0.74. The median long-term nominal neutral rate estimate was 2.75 percent, with the 25th and 75th percentiles at 2.75 and 3.00 percent.

The median policy rate forecast reaches that neutral estimate in March 2027.