Japan's output gap and labor market indicators show latest trends
The Bank of Japan has released its latest estimates for the output gap, potential growth rate, and key labor market indicators. The publication provides updated data and methodological notes for these crucial economic measures.
Gauging Japan's economic capacity
The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department estimates the output gap and potential growth rate, key indicators for assessing Japan's economic health.
The output gap measures the difference between actual and potential output, while the potential growth rate reflects the economy's maximum sustainable growth.
These estimations incorporate the Tankan factor utilization index, a weighted average of production capacity and employment conditions DIs across all industries.
The weights are derived from capital and labor shares in the National Accounts.
Historical data includes a discontinuity in December 2003 due to a survey framework change.
Recession periods are highlighted in the charts, providing crucial context for economic cycles.
The data draws from various official sources, including the Cabinet Office and relevant ministries.
Unemployment, vacancies, and labor flows
Key labor market indicators offer insights into Japan's employment dynamics.
These include the Beveridge Ratio, linking vacancy rates to unemployment, and the Tankan Employment Conditions DI, reflecting enterprise perceptions.
The Beveridge Ratio data uses different statistical sources before and after 2020/Q1, with recent figures estimated from the employment conditions DI. The unemployment rate and employment rate gap provide a broader view of labor utilization.
Additionally, the accession-separation rate gap, a three-quarter moving average, illustrates labor market fluidity.
Early 2026 data includes January figures for some indicators.
Recession periods are also noted, with data sourced from the Bank of Japan and relevant ministries.