Bank of Japan's Research Department publishes new core CPI indicators
The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department has begun publishing data on estimated consumer price inflation (CPI) rate, which excludes institutional factors, to accurately capture developments in prices. This monthly publication will be available on the 'Indicators for Core CPI' page of the Bank's website.
Unveiling inflation's true pulse
The Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department has launched the monthly publication of new 'Indicators for Core CPI' data.
This initiative aims to provide a more precise understanding of consumer price inflation by excluding various institutional factors that can distort official figures.
These factors, estimated by the Bank's staff, include changes in consumption tax rates, policies concerning free education, the 2021 reduction in mobile phone charges, travel subsidy programs, and measures to reduce energy costs (e.g., gasoline, electricity, gas).
The data will be presented across three series: 'all items less fresh food,' 'all items less fresh food and energy,' and 'all items less food and energy.'
The definition of these institutional factors may be subject to change without prior notice.
Continuity with established measures
In addition to the newly introduced CPI excluding institutional factors, the Bank of Japan will continue to publish four other key indicators under the 'Indicators for Core CPI' page.
These include the trimmed mean, weighted median, mode, and a diffusion index of increasing/decreasing items.
These four indicators are the same as those previously released under the 'Measures of Underlying Inflation' series.
For a more detailed understanding of their methodologies and analytical applications, the Bank refers to its Review Series publications.
Specifically, 'Core Inflation and the Business Cycle' by Hogen, Kawamoto, and Nakahama (2015-E-6) and 'Performance of Core Indicators of Japan's Consumer Price Index' by Shiratsuka (2015-E-7) provide comprehensive background.
A clearer lens for policy
The Bank of Japan's new indicators offer a more refined view of underlying inflation, crucial for accurate policy assessments.
By removing institutional noise, they provide a clearer signal of price trends amidst economic shifts.
However, the reliance on internal staff estimates for these exclusions introduces a degree of subjectivity, demanding careful interpretation.