BOCPaper
Time-expenditure substitution explains 40 percent of policy impact
A Bank of Canada staff working paper finds that household time reallocation explains consumption cyclicality across categories.
AI Paper Curation
FEDPaper
Limited foresight turns optimal public debt and taxes stationary
A Federal Reserve research paper demonstrates that bounded rationality invalidates Barro's random walk hypothesis for public debt and taxes.
BOEPaper
Capital gains tax cuts raised US equity volatility 35 percent
A Bank of England working paper finds that US capital gains tax cuts since the 1970s increased stock price-dividend volatility by 35 percent.
BOEPaper
Productivity growth lifts inflation when demand outpaces capacity
A Bank of England working paper finds that productivity growth is not inherently disinflationary and can drive consumer prices higher.
BDFPaper
Nature lawsuits reduce corporate market values by 1.8 percent
Nature-related lawsuits reduce corporate valuations by an average of 1.76 percent around court rulings, according to a Banque de France working paper.
BOCPaper
FEDPaper
Macro indicators drive 19 percent of structural labor slack gauge
Federal Reserve economists developed a Structural Labor Market Indicator synthesizing nine labor margins within a New Keynesian model.
BISPaper
Trimmed mean trade data cuts US forecast errors up to 15 percent
New trimmed import and export growth rates for the United States reduce forecast errors by up to 15 percent over four to 12 months.
ECBPaper
Aggregate EU labour participation proves resilient to growth shocks
An ECB study finds the aggregate European labour force participation rate remains resilient to economic downturns, unlike in the United States.
ECBPaper
Bond funding and fixed loan rates dampen policy rate pass-through
Euro area banks relying on bond issuance and fixed-rate lending adjust corporate loan rates significantly more slowly to policy rate shifts than money-market-dependent lenders, according to an ECB working paper covering 266 institutions from 2007 to 2023.
ECBPaper
Lower import cap and labor gap refine euro area inflation gauges
European Central Bank economists have revised the methodologies for measuring euro area domestic and Supercore inflation under the new ECOICOP version 2 basket.
BISPaper
High debt triples risk premium response to fiscal deficits
Public debt at multi-decade highs in the Americas amplifies the sensitivity of sovereign risk premia to fiscal deficits, a new BIS Bulletin study shows.