Russia's Current Account Surplus Halves to $9.2 Billion in Q4 2025
Russia's current account surplus significantly decreased to $9.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from $14 billion in the same period of 2024. This contraction was primarily driven by a reduced trade surplus and an expanded deficit in the balance of services.
Trade Surplus Shrinks Amid Export Decline
Russia's current account surplus significantly contracted to $9.2 billion in 2025 Q4, a sharp decline from $14 billion in the previous year's fourth quarter.
This reduction was primarily driven by a shrinking trade surplus, which fell to $28 billion from $32 billion in 2024 Q4, and an expanded deficit in the balance of services.
Goods exports decreased by 2% year-on-year to $114 billion in Q4, largely due to lower global prices for oil and coal, a wider discount on Russian Urals crude, and reduced quantities of certain hydrocarbon feedstocks.
The contraction in fuel exports was partially mitigated by a rise in non-energy exports, including chemicals and metals.
Geographically, Russian exports continued their pivot, with Asia's share increasing to 78% by year-end 2025, while Europe's share dropped to 14%.
Goods imports, in contrast, remained relatively stable, rising by 1% year-on-year to $86 billion in 2025 Q4, reaching the 2024 level for the full year.
Energy Exports Navigate Global Shifts
Oil prices in 2025 Q4 remained below previous levels, with Brent crude dropping by 15% year-on-year to $64 per barrel, and Russian Urals crude falling sharply by 28% to $46 per barrel due to EU and USA restrictions.
Despite this, oil export quantities were supported by Asian demand and expanded OPEC+ production quotas.
A redistribution from petroleum products to crude oil exports continued, influenced by refinery repairs and export bans.
Global natural gas prices varied, with European prices decreasing amid rising US LNG exports to the EU.
Natural gas exports to the EU remained below 2024 Q4 levels due to the cessation of transit through Ukraine, though partially offset by increased supplies via TurkStream.
Demand from China for Russian natural gas surged in Q4, reaching record contractual levels for 2025.
Russian LNG supplies to the EU dropped, while supplies to China more than doubled.
Navigating Sanctions and Shifting Alliances
Russia's Q4 2025 balance of payments data clearly illustrates the dual impact of Western sanctions and the strategic pivot towards Asian markets.
While the redirection of energy and non-energy exports to Asia provides some resilience, the sharp decline in the current account surplus highlights the ongoing challenges in maintaining external balances.
This suggests a precarious rebalancing act for the Russian economy, with vulnerabilities in both trade and services.