BISPaper
Uncertainty shocks steepen credit surfaces and restrict leverage
A Federal Reserve working paper by John Geanakoplos and David Rappoport shows that uncertainty shocks steepen credit surfaces across leverage ratios.
AI Paper Curation
BISPaper
Unanchored inflation expectations double energy shock impact on prices
A Bank for International Settlements study shows that global energy supply shocks produce more than double the impact on core inflation when household inflation expectations exceed central bank targets.
ECBPaper
Earnings call data sharpens euro area job vacancy forecasts
A new ECB working paper shows that extracting text-based labour demand indicators from corporate earnings calls significantly improves short-term forecasts of euro area job vacancy rates.
ECBPaper
Stock market and sovereign shocks pose greatest risk to bank capital
A European Central Bank working paper introduces MuSE, a simulation engine designed to generate thousands of macro-financial stress scenarios.
BISPaper
CRE bank loans cluster regionally while bond debt spreads globally
A study of the 100 largest euro area commercial real estate groups reveals distinct risk patterns between bank loans and bond markets.
BISPaper
BISPaper
Below-market mortgage rates curb household mobility by 17 percent
A review of economic literature by Federal Reserve researchers shows that below-market mortgage rates reduced US household mobility by up to 17 percent post-2021.
ECBPaper
EU venture capital funds lag US by sixfold at 150 billion euros
Venture capital funds located in the United States hold approximately 930 billion euros, about six times the 150 billion euros managed by EU funds.
ECBPaper
Job security drives European job search while pay leads in US market
An ECB working paper by Bick, Dias da Silva, and Weißler reveals that 13 percent of European workers and 19 percent of U.S. workers actively search while employed.
ECBPaper
Severe model defects drive majority of supervisory capital add-ons
Severe model defects, rather than the total number of flaws, drive supervisory capital add-ons imposed on euro area banks using internal ratings-based models.
BOJPaper
Reduced JGB purchases lift long-term yields by 25 basis points
The Bank of Japan's tapering of Japanese government bond purchases has pushed up long-term interest rates by approximately 25 basis points since summer 2024.
ECBPaper
Energy price shocks hit low income households twice as hard
An ECB study shows energy price surges act as an open-economy income tax that hits poorest households hardest.