FEDPaper
Scarring effects steepen Phillips curve and alter economic gaps
A Federal Reserve working paper finds that cyclical shocks cause persistent scarring to potential output and the natural rate of unemployment.
AI Paper Curation
ECBPaper
Energy price shocks hit low income households twice as hard
An ECB study shows energy price surges act as an open-economy income tax that hits poorest households hardest.
ECBPaper
Supply chain linkages amplify inflation shocks and persistence
An ECB working paper demonstrates that incorporating production network linkages into Bayesian vector autoregressions reveals stronger and more persistent inflation spillovers from sectoral shocks, with supply chain structures significantly amplifying energy and agricultural price pass-through.
ECBPaper
Middle East war shock curbs euro area spending
The war in the Middle East caused euro area consumer confidence to drop by 12 index points between February and April 2026, lowering nominal consumption growth from over 3 percent to 2.5 percent.
BOJPaper
Core inflation to hit 2.5 percent as policy rates rise
The Bank of Japan projects core inflation to reach 2.5 percent in fiscal 2026 before easing toward its 2 percent target, while real GDP growth slows to 0.6 percent.
FEDPaper
FEDPaper
Firm cost beliefs steepen Phillips curve and mute demand shocks
A Federal Reserve study by Robert Minton and Hugo Monnery reveals that US firms form cost forecasts by overreacting to past unit costs while underreacting to aggregate signals.
FEDPaper
Uncertainty shocks steepen credit surfaces and raise leverage costs
Federal Reserve researchers John Geanakoplos and David Rappoport show that uncertainty shocks steepen corporate credit surfaces, raising borrowing costs for leveraged firms.
BDEPaper
Ten percent NO2 increase lowers Madrid house prices by 0.65 percent
A 10 percent increase in nitrogen dioxide pollution reduces Madrid housing prices by 0.65 percent, or about 1,327 euros for the average home, according to a Banco de España working paper.
SSMPaper
Geopolitical stress test reveals flaws in bank crisis planning
The ECB Banking Supervision's 2026 thematic stress test of 110 euro area banks revealed inconsistencies in how institutions model geopolitical risks.
CBRPaper
Bank concentration limits tightened, capital requirements to triple
The Central Bank of Russia has unveiled a major regulatory review outlining plans to triple minimum capital requirements for banks to 3 billion rubles and enforce strict 100 percent risk weights on large corporate loan concentration starting in 2028.
BOJPaper
Inflation projected at 2.5 percent as rate increases remain on track
The Bank of Japan projects core consumer price inflation at 2.5 percent for fiscal 2026, driven by higher energy costs, yen weakness, and AI demand.