BIS
Paper
High debt triples risk premium response to fiscal deficits
Public debt at multi-decade highs in the Americas amplifies the sensitivity of sovereign risk premia to fiscal deficits, a new BIS Bulletin study shows.
AI Paper Curation
BIS
Paper
Trimmed mean trade data cuts US forecast errors up to 15 percent
New trimmed import and export growth rates for the United States reduce forecast errors by up to 15 percent over four to 12 months.
ECB
Paper
Aggregate EU labour participation proves resilient to growth shocks
An ECB study finds the aggregate European labour force participation rate remains resilient to economic downturns, unlike in the United States.
ECB
Paper
Bond funding and fixed loan rates dampen policy rate pass-through
Euro area banks relying on bond issuance and fixed-rate lending adjust corporate loan rates significantly more slowly to policy rate shifts than money-market-dependent lenders, according to an ECB working paper covering 266 institutions from 2007 to 2023.
ECB
Paper
Lower import cap and labor gap refine euro area inflation gauges
European Central Bank economists have revised the methodologies for measuring euro area domestic and Supercore inflation under the new ECOICOP version 2 basket.
BIS
Paper
BDF
Paper
Climate stress tests raise spreads for new high emitters by 10bp
Participating in the ECB climate stress test led euro area banks to reallocate credit away from carbon-intensive clients and charge 10 basis points higher spreads on new high-emitting borrowers, according to a Banque de France study of over two million loan records.
BIS
Paper
Repo markets: efficient and fragile for the same reasons
A multi-central bank study shows that the 16 trillion dollar global repo market provides essential liquidity while harboring acute structural vulnerabilities.
BIS
Paper
Rising complexity premia explain four decades of US wage inequality
A Federal Reserve Board study shows that occupational problem-solving complexity strongly predicts US wage growth since 1980.
BIS
Paper
AI growth increases US output volatility by 2.8 percent
A Kansas City Fed working paper finds that artificial intelligence development is concentrated in volatile occupations and has increased US output volatility by 2.8 percent, roughly 3.5 times the impact of the 1990s IT boom.
BIS
Paper
Analytical shortcut solves dynamic distribution in fixed cost models
A Kansas City Fed working paper provides an analytical solution to the Kolmogorov forward equation for fixed cost models.
BIS
Paper
Zoning expanded single-family land share and raised lot sizes
A Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia working paper shows that historical zoning regulations in Cook County systematically expanded single-family land use while reducing apartments and mixed-use commercial space between 1921 and 1980.