Makhlouf stresses judgement under uncertainty in age of AI
Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf advised economics students to combine interdisciplinary insights with real-world judgement under uncertainty. In his annual letter, Makhlouf highlighted the limits of artificial intelligence and the enduring value of economic history.
Navigating uncertainty beyond textbook risk
Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf outlined seven principles for economics students, emphasizing that the discipline is “essentially a moral science and not a natural science.”
Economic policymaking demands judgement under genuine uncertainty rather than mechanical risk modeling.
Makhlouf noted that while artificial intelligence assists with technical analysis, it cannot identify meaningful questions or convey trade-offs to the public.
Economic models must remain anchored in reality and integrate insights from climate science, ethics and engineering.
Students should also examine economic history and diverse thinkers to understand ongoing structural changes.
Global fragmentation and Irish resilience
The letter comes amid geopolitical fragmentation and an inflation shock following the attack on Iran, which prompted monetary policy responses across the euro area.
In Ireland, growth has shown resilience, supported by multinational investment in artificial intelligence, although the underlying domestic expansion proceeds at a more moderate pace.
Makhlouf highlighted central bank publications, such as the Quarterly Bulletin and Financial Stability Review, alongside the 2027 graduate recruitment campaign.
Judgement over algorithms
Makhlouf provides a sharp reality check against the uncritical adoption of automated modeling in policy institutions.
Prioritizing genuine uncertainty and clear writing reclaims the essential human judgement behind public decisions.
This pragmatic advice equips future analysts far better than chasing transient technical fads.
Source: A Letter to Students of Economics - 2026
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