Current account surplus expands to 21 billion dollars in Q2 2026
Russia's current account surplus increased to 21 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2 billion dollars a year earlier. The Bank of Russia attributed the growth primarily to expanding merchandise exports driven by higher global commodity prices.
High commodity prices drive trade expansion
Goods exports reached 126 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2026, rising 27 percent year-on-year.
This surge was primarily driven by higher global prices for mineral products, food, and metals following Middle East supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian Urals crude averaged 82 dollars per barrel, up 50 percent from the prior quarter, while Brent exceeded 104 dollars per barrel.
The merchandise trade surplus expanded to 38 billion dollars as export growth outpaced an 16 percent increase in imports, which totaled 87 billion dollars.
Increased imports were supported by ruble strengthening and front-loaded purchases of machinery, equipment, and vehicles ahead of anticipated regulatory fee adjustments.
Shift toward Asian trade and national currencies
Trade geography continued shifting toward Asia, which accounted for 80 percent of Russian merchandise exports in the first half of 2026, up from 76 percent a year earlier.
Europe's share fell to 13 percent amid sanctions.
In international settlements, the share of the Russian ruble for export receipts rose to 63 percent from 53 percent in the second quarter of 2025.
Import settlements in rubles reached 55 percent, while the share of Western currencies dropped to 11 percent for exports.
Windfall gains mask structural vulnerabilities
The current account surge relies heavily on external commodity price shocks rather than organic economic growth.
Windfall oil revenues briefly mask the persistent pressures caused by trade restrictions and logistics bottlenecks.
This leaves Russia's external position acutely vulnerable to any rapid reversal in global energy markets.