Developer loans rise 5.6 percent to 10.8 trillion rubles
Bank lending to Russian housing developers increased by 5.6 percent in the second quarter of 2026, bringing the project finance portfolio to 10.85 trillion rubles. Escrow account coverage of developer debt fell to 65.2 percent as disbursements outpaced inflows.
Seasonal surge in project credit
Total credit limits extended to developers expanded 5.0 percent in the second quarter of 2026 to 24.29 trillion rubles, with active credit lines reaching 18.49 trillion rubles.
Quarterly loan disbursements increased to 1.60 trillion rubles, up by 300 billion rubles from the previous quarter, driven partly by seasonal construction activity.
As a result, the project financing portfolio grew 5.6 percent quarter-on-quarter to 10.85 trillion rubles, representing roughly 49 percent of banking sector capital.
Loan quality remained stable across the sector: debt classified in risk categories IV and V stood at 97 billion rubles, comprising less than 1 percent of the total portfolio, while overdue debt remained flat at 54 billion rubles.
Escrow coverage slips as demand cools
Escrow account balances reached 7.55 trillion rubles, rising 2.0 percent over the quarter as inflows moderated to 1.18 trillion rubles following earlier mortgage rule changes.
With debt growing faster than deposits, escrow coverage declined by 2.9 percentage points to 65.2 percent.
Residential sales fell 10 percent quarter-on-quarter to 5.2 million square meters, valued at 1.20 trillion rubles.
Primary market housing prices rose 1.1 percent in nominal terms but contracted 0.1 percent when adjusted for inflation, while unsold inventory expanded to 54.2 million square meters.
Growing debt on thinning margins
A widening gap between debt accumulation and sluggish escrow inflows exposes banks to emerging vulnerabilities.
Although low default rates maintain stability today, expanding unsold inventories will squeeze developer margins.
Lenders must prepare for tighter coverage as subsidized demand fades.