Russian household inflation expectations rise to 14.7 percent

Russian inflation expectations increased sharply in July 2026, driven by surging concern over fuel costs.

According to the 161st wave of the inFOM survey for the Bank of Russia, median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 14.7 percent from 12.4 percent in June.

Observed inflation over the past year climbed to 15.1 percent from 14.2 percent.

A steep rise in gasoline prices emerged as the dominant catalyst, cited by 55 percent of respondents compared to 33 percent in the previous month.

Other prominent price drivers included meat and poultry at 44 percent, utility bills at 36 percent, and fish at 35 percent.

Simultaneously, the Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 98 to 90 points.

Inflation perception varied significantly across demographic and financial groups.

For households with savings, one-year inflation expectations rose to 13.0 percent from 11.0 percent in June, whereas expectations among respondents without savings surged to 16.5 percent from 13.6 percent.

Long-term expectations for 2031 climbed to 11.2 percent overall.

Propensity to save declined, with 48 percent favoring saving unallocated funds over major purchases, down from 54 percent in June.

Meanwhile, 39 percent preferred keeping savings in bank accounts and 33 percent in cash, as 36 percent of families reported outstanding debt.