Bond yields rise as Russian monetary conditions remain tight
Russian monetary conditions remained moderately tight in September despite mixed indicator movements, the Bank of Russia reported on October 9, 2026. Bond yields and inflation expectations rose, while broad money growth slowed.
Higher yields, unchanged policy rate
The Board held the policy rate at 14.0 percent on September 11, citing stronger persistent price pressure and inflationary risks outweighing disinflationary risks.
Household inflation expectations rose from 13.7 to 14.2 percent in September.
RUONIA averaged 14.03 percent, up 23 basis points, with a positive 3-basis-point policy-rate spread.
The Bank conducted seven fine-tuning auctions as banks' liquidity needs rose from RUB 5.2 trillion to RUB 5.9 trillion.
Average government bond yields rose 47 basis points to 16.01 percent as the Finance Ministry resumed auctions and budget news affected markets.
The 10-year yield ended September at 16.88 percent, up 84 basis points.
IFX-Cbonds averaged 15.61 percent, up 18 basis points; its average government-bond spread widened from 152 to 186 basis points.
Loan pricing moves both ways
August corporate loan rates rose to 17.9 percent for short maturities and 13.0 percent for long maturities, up 1.1 and 0.1 percentage points respectively.
Long-term household loan rates fell 0.7 percentage points to 18.3 percent; mortgage rates fell from 10.5 to 10.1 percent as Family Mortgage lending gained share.
Short-term household deposit rates held at 13.1 percent; long-term rates rose 0.4 percentage points to 11.1 percent.
Annual M2 growth eased to 12.8 percent and M2X to 12.2 percent in August.
Preliminary September M2X growth slowed further to 11.3 percent, excluding currency revaluation.
Term premiums, not rate expectations
The Bank attributes September's government-bond yield increases mainly to higher term premiums rather than revised policy-rate expectations.
Money-market rates remained close to 14.0–14.1 percent through one year.
The report therefore separates sovereign-market repricing from the expected policy-rate path.