Developer loan portfolio grows in Q1 2026
The CBR's report on project financing for housing construction in Q1 2026 shows a continued increase in the portfolio of loans to developers. This growth occurred despite a slowdown in new project launches and a decrease in funds attracted to escrow accounts.
Housing market navigates policy shifts
In Q1 2026, developers submitted declarations for 10.8 million m2 of multi-apartment housing, a significant increase of 2.6 million m2 compared to Q1 2025.
However, only 8.1 million m2 were launched for sale, marking the lowest volume in three years.
This disparity suggests that construction has not yet commenced for all new projects, possibly due to anticipated reductions in state support for the 'Family Mortgage' program, with discussions around differentiated rates.
The volume of ongoing projects with escrow accounts reached 117.3 million m2, growing by 2.4 million m2 during the quarter.
The unsold area in projects with open sales remained largely stable at 52.7 million m2, influenced by strong January sales ahead of 'Family Mortgage' changes and a slowdown in new project launches for sale.
Project financing growth moderates
The overall project financing (PF) portfolio reached 10.3 trillion rubles by April 1, 2026, representing 48 percent of the banking sector's capital.
However, its growth slowed significantly to just 0.6 percent in Q1 2026, compared to 2 percent in Q4 2025 and 5 percent in Q1 2025.
This moderation is attributed to reduced disbursements within approved credit limits, which fell to 1.3 trillion rubles, and active repayments for completed projects.
Despite this slowdown, the quality of the PF portfolio remains high, with loans in the IV-V quality categories accounting for just over 1 percent.
Banks are actively working with developers to resolve any issues, ensuring project completion.
A market in cautious rebalancing
The report paints a picture of a housing market adjusting to tighter conditions and reduced state support.
While developer loan portfolios continue to grow, the slowdown in new project launches and sales suggests a more cautious approach from both developers and buyers.
The stability of the unsold area and acceptable escrow coverage indicate resilience, but future growth hinges on sustained demand beyond government incentives.