Dutch food prices fall as earlier cost declines outweigh energy
Dutch food prices were lower year on year in August–October 2026 despite energy prices rising since March, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) explains. Earlier commodity and energy cost declines are still feeding through to supermarket prices.
Cheaper butter restrains inflation
Dutch food prices fell year on year in August, September and October 2026, holding back headline inflation.
In September, semi-skimmed and skimmed milk were around 7 percent cheaper than a year earlier, vegetable oils 13 percent cheaper, butter and other milk fats 31 percent cheaper and beef 8 percent cheaper.
Not all products became cheaper, and the declines have not reversed earlier increases.
Since 2016, negative food price inflation had previously occurred only in 2021.
Food inflation reached 15 percent during 2022–2024, driven partly by energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and international food prices.
In October 2026, food prices nevertheless rose 0.4 percent from September; DNB says temporary price fluctuations may explain this.
Contracts delay the energy effect
Good European cereal and oilseed harvests in 2025 and lower global coffee, tea, cocoa and sugar prices reduced upstream costs.
Contracts delay transmission: supermarkets and suppliers negotiate only a few times annually.
Lower 2025 energy prices restrained food inflation through July 2026.
Rising energy costs now feed gradually into transport, processing, fertiliser and packaging.
Firms can absorb costs in margins rather than pass them on fully.
Retail prices therefore reflect past costs and pricing decisions as well as current conditions.
Cheaper is not permanent
Annual price declines do not establish a continuing downward trend, DNB stresses.
Earlier cost relief still offsets rising energy costs, but that buffer may diminish as firms pass costs through.
Extreme weather and decisions on profit margins also leave the durability of cheaper groceries uncertain.