Households see climate change raising inflation more than green aid
Dutch households anticipate greater inflationary effects from climate change than from green support policies in 2035. De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) reports the findings in Working Paper No. 875, published on October 26, 2026.
Climate damage tops carbon pricing
Households anticipate higher inflation and inflation volatility in 2035 from climate change, the green transition and all three climate policies surveyed.
Mean inflation-effect scores are 0.520 for climate change, 0.410 for carbon pricing, 0.246 for the transition and 0.161 each for transition support and green innovation support.
These are balance statistics, not percentage-point forecasts: the scale runs from -1 for a large decrease to 1 for a large increase.
Corresponding volatility scores are 0.515, 0.401, 0.270, 0.179 and 0.159. Food prices are a transmission channel for 74.5 percent of respondents, energy prices for 71.5 percent, economic activity for 58.0 percent and supply disruptions for 44.1 percent.
Weather beliefs separate households
Gabriele Galati, Fulvia Marotta, Richhild Moessner and Maarten van Rooij use a December 2025 survey administered by Centerdata through the Dutch LISS household panel.
Of 2,921 invited members, 2,064 completed it, a 71 percent response rate.
Respondents anticipating greater warming and more severe weather report larger inflation and volatility effects, including after demographic controls.
Climate-driven upside inflation risks appear in all 46 reliably populated demographic cells matched with a separate inflation survey.
Beliefs are not inflation forecasts
The survey documents perceived inflation pressure, not measured effects on future prices.
Its one-time design cannot establish whether temporary shocks pass into long-term expectations.
The smaller perceived effects of green support therefore do not prove that such policies preserve anchoring.