Sleijpen warns delayed transition raises economic climate costs
Olaf Sleijpen of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) urged faster emissions cuts at the Green Swan Conference in Manila on October 19, 2026. He said adaptation cannot replace mitigation as climate damage threatens monetary and financial stability.
Weather damage reaches $384 billion
Sleijpen cited reinsurers' estimates of $384 billion in annual direct weather damage over the past five years, more than double early-2000s levels.
A Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) study for the G7 recorded GDP losses up to 57 percent and inflation increases up to 17 percentage points across countries.
A European Central Bank study puts almost 15 percent of euro area output at risk from surface water scarcity alone.
The World Bank estimates that half of global GDP depends on biodiversity, natural capital and ecosystem services.
Seven of nine planetary boundaries have been crossed.
Sleijpen said the carbon budget for 1.5°C is almost exhausted and warned of an overshoot within the next decade, citing irreversible impacts identified by the IPCC.
Cheaper renewables change the economics
Before the 2015 Paris Agreement, warming projections reached 3.5°C by 2100; current policies point to around 2.8°C, Sleijpen said.
International Renewable Energy Agency figures show renewable capacity exceeding 2.5 times its 2015 level and utility-scale solar costs falling around 90 percent since 2010.
Yet 2015–2025 were the 11 warmest years recorded.
Every additional 0.1°C intensifies extremes, he said.
Faster transition limits physical damage and fossil-energy price exposure; adaptation complements emissions cuts rather than replacing them.
Risk management, not climate policymaking
Sleijpen places climate policy with governments of almost 200 countries, not central banks.
The NGFS's over 150 members support risk assessment through data, scenarios including 3-to-5-year horizons and supervisory guidance.
His distinction preserves central banks' monetary and financial stability mandate while recognizing climate-related economic risks.
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