Consumers see higher past inflation, negative growth

In April, consumers' perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 4.0 percent from 3.5 percent in March.

However, expectations for inflation three years ahead slightly decreased to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent.

Expectations for the next 12 months and five years ahead remained unchanged at 4.0 percent and 2.4 percent respectively.

Uncertainty about short-term inflation expectations persisted at an elevated level.

Consumers' nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 0.8 percent from 1.2 percent.

Despite this, expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 4.3 percent from 4.1 percent.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, falling to -2.2 percent in April from -2.1 percent in March.

Despite this, the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased slightly to 11.2 percent from 11.3 percent, suggesting a broadly stable labor market outlook.

Housing price growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, with mortgage interest rate expectations also holding steady at 4.9 percent.

However, consumers reported a significant tightening of credit access over the past 12 months, reaching its highest level since February 2024.

Expectations for tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months similarly rose to their highest since October 2023.