Inflation expectations rise as consumers see weaker growth
Consumers raised one-year inflation expectations to 3.1 percent in September 2026 from 3.0 percent in August. The European Central Bank (ECB) survey, published October 23, also showed weaker growth expectations and tighter credit access.
Near-term prices edge higher
Median perceived inflation rose to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent, while three- and five-year inflation expectations held at 2.9 percent and 2.5 percent.
Inflation uncertainty increased slightly and remained above its level before the Middle East conflict.
Lower-income respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations; respondents aged 18-34 reported lower readings than those aged 35-54 and 55-70. Expected economic growth fell to -1.5 percent from -1.2 percent.
Expected unemployment rose to 11.3 percent from 11.0 percent, against perceived current unemployment of 10.6 percent.
The lowest income quintile expected unemployment of 13.6 percent, compared with 9.7 percent in the highest quintile.
The ECB described the labor market outlook as broadly stable.
Income trails spending expectations
Expected nominal income growth rose to 1.1 percent from 1.0 percent, with 1.5 percent in the bottom income quintile and 1.2 percent in the top.
Perceived spending growth rose to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent; expected growth reached 3.7 percent from 3.6 percent.
Expected home price growth rose to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent, with 4.0 percent in the bottom quintile versus 3.2 percent in the top.
Mortgage rate expectations held at 4.9 percent, unchanged from July, with 5.7 percent in the bottom quintile and 4.4 percent in the top.
Household views, not policy guidance
More households reported tighter credit access and anticipated further tightening on a net basis than in August.
The survey covers around 19,000 adults across 11 euro area countries.
These household expectations inform policy analysis but do not represent the views of ECB decision-makers or staff.