Monetary Analysts Survey: Five years of evolution, insights
The European Central Bank's (ECB's) Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) provides valuable information on financial market participants' expectations regarding monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook. Launched in April 2019, the SMA has evolved over five years to inform the Governing Council's policy assessment.
SMA panel expands, questionnaire sharpens
The ECB's Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) has significantly evolved over five years to enhance its representativeness and robustness.
The panel size has grown from 30 in 2021 to 75 in 2026, improving statistical accuracy and allowing for better analysis of diverse market views.
Response and completeness rates consistently reach around 90% in 2025, up from 85% and 76% in 2021 respectively, indicating strong engagement.
The panel's composition has also broadened, with non-bank financial institutions (e.g., asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds) now accounting for 47% of panellists, alongside banks (53%).
This provides a more balanced cross-section of market perspectives, crucial for understanding monetary policy transmission.
Additionally, a comprehensive questionnaire revision in June 2022 streamlined wording and simplified the visual layout, reducing ambiguity and respondent burden while preserving the survey's monetary policy focus.
Expectations shape policy transmission
SMA data provides crucial analytical input for the Governing Council's monetary policy meetings, complementing financial market instruments and staff projections.
While median forecasts for interest rates and macroeconomic variables are key, the distribution of expectations offers richer insights.
The December 2025 SMA, for example, showed a stable median for the deposit facility rate (DFR) but a narrowed interquartile range, indicating increased consensus.
Comparing December 2025 with July 2025 SMA rounds revealed heterogeneity: respondents anticipating DFR cuts expected weaker inflation and subdued GDP growth, while those expecting no cuts projected inflation at target and stronger growth.
This highlights the SMA's capacity to uncover diverse macroeconomic assessments.
A vital lens, but not the full picture
The SMA has become an indispensable tool for the ECB, offering a structured view into market expectations.
Its strength lies in revealing the nuances of disagreement and the underlying drivers of individual forecasts, moving beyond simple aggregate medians.
However, relying solely on survey data risks overlooking rapid, sentiment-driven shifts in real-time market behavior, necessitating continuous cross-referencing with high-frequency financial indicators.