Wage tracker shows stable pressures through 2026
The European Central Bank's updated wage tracker indicates that negotiated wage growth is expected to remain stable at around 2.6 percent by the end of 2026. This data release covers collective bargaining agreements signed up to mid-April 2026.
Stable outlook, varied indicators
The ECB wage tracker, which includes smoothed one-off payments, shows negotiated wage growth at 3.2 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026.
When unsmoothed one-off payments are considered, the growth stands at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 2.6 percent for 2026.
The tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing from 3.8 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026.
These figures, based on agreements up to mid-April 2026, suggest a broadly unrevised and stable outlook for negotiated wage pressures through the end of 2026.
The headline tracker, better suited for quarterly dynamics, averages 1.8 percent in the first quarter, 2.1 percent in the second quarter, and 2.6 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, reflecting the dissipation of mechanical downward effects from past one-off payments.
Beyond the headline numbers
The stability in the unsmoothed wage tracker for 2026, averaging 2.9 percent in the first quarter, 2.6 percent in the second quarter, and 2.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters, presents a less volatile outlook compared to previous years.
The tracker excluding one-off payments is projected to hover around 2.6 percent for 2026, signaling more moderate dynamics in base wages.
Employee coverage for 2026 ranges from 45.6 percent in the first quarter to 38.8 percent in the fourth quarter across participating countries.
The data for Austria has been expanded to start from January 2013.
The forward-looking horizon remains until December 2026, with an extension to the first quarter of 2027 planned for the July 2026 data release.
A cautious forward glance
While the tracker signals stability, its forward-looking component is inherently limited, reflecting only currently available agreements and not a forecast.
The deeply uncertain economic situation could yet alter the role of one-off payments, a factor not fully captured by current data.
Therefore, this release offers a snapshot rather than a definitive trajectory for future wage developments, necessitating ongoing vigilance.