Lane warns global AI boom tightens euro area financing

Lane said firms would devote around 10 percent of investment to AI in 2026, while AI-related lending accounts for roughly one quarter of recent corporate credit growth.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, 64 percent of firms reported experimental or moderate AI use and 7 percent reported intensive use.

Worker adoption reached 52 percent, versus 26 percent in 2024, with time savings concentrated in sectors and tasks such as coding.

Among firms planning AI investment, 49 percent plan spending on tools, 46 percent on training, 40 percent on data and infrastructure and 12 percent on specialists, mostly financed internally.

Lane said aggregate productivity gains remain undetectable so far, but AI could raise potential output and help offset Europe's declining working-age population.

Over two years, US digital investment grew twice as fast as euro area investment; US workers spend two to three times as much of their working week using AI.

The Stanford AI Index counts 59 notable models from the United States, 35 from China and one each from France and the United Kingdom.

The United States hosts 75 percent of global AI computing capacity, compared with Europe's 5 percent.

Lane said global AI investment and anticipated productivity gains plausibly raise long-term rates, tightening euro area financing despite its smaller AI expansion.