Forecasters see stable inflation, slight GDP growth rise for 2026
The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows unchanged inflation expectations across all horizons. Real GDP growth for 2026 was slightly revised up, while unemployment rate expectations remained stable.
Inflation outlook holds steady
The European Central Bank's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) reveals that expectations for headline HICP inflation remain unchanged at 1.8 percent for 2026 and 2.0 percent for 2027. Longer-term expectations for 2030 also held firm at 2.0 percent.
Similarly, core HICP inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is anticipated to be 2.0 percent across all horizons, consistent with the previous survey round.
These stable inflation forecasts suggest that professional economists largely believe the disinflationary process is on track, with price pressures expected to converge towards the ECB's target over the medium term.
The survey also noted a slight upward revision for real GDP growth in 2026, now at 1.2 percent, up from the previous 1.1 percent.
This modest adjustment is attributed primarily to stronger-than-expected GDP data from the third quarter of 2025, providing a positive carry-over effect.
GDP growth expectations for 2027 and the longer term (2030) remained unchanged at 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent respectively, indicating a stable but moderate growth trajectory for the euro area economy.
Unemployment stable, survey insights
Unemployment rate expectations for the euro area show a stable outlook for the near term, with forecasts holding at 6.3 percent for 2026 and 6.2 percent for 2027. A slight downward revision was noted for the longer term, with the rate expected to reach 6.1 percent by 2028 and remain there through 2030. This suggests a resilient labor market, gradually improving over time.
The SPF, conducted between January 7 and 12, 2026, gathered 62 responses from experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions across Europe.
It provides a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment.
The results do not represent the official views of the ECB's decision-making bodies or its staff.
The next official ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area are scheduled for publication on March 19, 2026.
Calm before the storm?
The consistent forecasts across key indicators suggest a period of relative stability in economic expectations, offering little immediate impetus for significant policy shifts.
While the slight upward revision in 2026 GDP growth is a positive signal, it is largely a technical carry-over and not indicative of a strong underlying acceleration.
Overall, the survey paints a picture of a gradual, rather than dynamic, economic evolution, potentially leading to a 'wait-and-see' approach from policymakers.