Bache highlights AI's dual impact and global economic shifts
Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache, in her annual address, discussed the dual nature of current global economic challenges and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. She emphasized the critical need for institutions to adapt to these new realities to foster stability and predictability.
Global economy defies tariff storm
Governor Bache noted that the global economy has sustained expansion despite elevated US tariffs, a level not seen since the interwar period.
This resilience is attributed to tariff exemptions, companies maneuvering around rates, and limited retaliation from other countries.
The trade conflict primarily involved the US and China, with some barriers rolled back after a few weeks.
Chinese exports grew faster last year, offsetting lower sales to the US with increased exports to other nations.
Norwegian companies also experienced increased competition from Chinese firms but reported no major impact on their activity.
Additionally, increased defense spending in Europe and significant US investment in AI-driven software, IT equipment, and data centers have boosted growth.
Household consumption has also picked up internationally and in Norway, driven by increased purchasing power and last year's interest rate cuts.
AI: Promise and peril
Governor Bache highlighted artificial intelligence as an epochal technological shift, presenting both significant dangers and immense opportunities.
Risks include autonomous weapon systems and disinformation, while benefits span medical research and clean energy.
The potential productivity gains from AI are highly uncertain, with estimates varying widely.
Norway is well-positioned to benefit due to its knowledge-intensive service industries and high wage levels.
While AI's impact on headline labor market figures is not yet clear, there are signs of shifts in job postings for new graduates, particularly in sectors like banking and finance, indicating a demand for new skills rather than widespread job displacement.
Institutional adaptation is paramount
AI's uncertain impact on interest rates demands flexible policy, balancing potential inflationary and disinflationary forces.
Harnessing its benefits requires significant investment in skills and data, a challenge many institutions face.
Norges Bank's call for institutional renewal is thus essential to navigate this epochal shift, ensuring equitable outcomes.
Source: Economic perspectives
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