Oslo land values reach 3.5 times their 2003 level
Real land-related values in Oslo reached about 3.5 times their end-2003 level by end-2025, Norges Bank researchers estimate. Their implied share of new housing costs rose from 32 to 53 percent, increasing collateral exposure to land-price fluctuations.
Land outpaces the structure
Anna Emilie Iden, Plamen Nenov and Sonja Plaku estimate quarterly land-related values for Oslo apartments from Q4 2003 to Q4 2025.
Real land values rose strongly until 2017, then remained broadly flat through 2025; replacement costs increased around 50 percent over the full period.
The implied land share of new housing costs rose from 32 to 53 percent, peaking near 59 percent in Q1 2017.
Cyclical volatility measured 9.1 percent for land, against 4.5 percent for used-home prices and 1.6 percent for replacement costs.
Oslo zoning approval times increased approximately 35 percent, from around 1,400 days in 2016 to 1,900 in 2025.
The authors identify slower downward adjustment in new-home list-price residuals than in used-home residuals.
A residual, not raw land
The method subtracts depreciated replacement costs from used-home prices, using a 2025 Norsk Prisbok benchmark, Statistics Norway cost and productivity data and Norwegian Land Register age discounts.
The residual includes development costs, developer margins and regulatory costs, not just raw land scarcity.
Measurement errors also enter it.
Alternative construction costs from UNION lower the estimated land share by 4 to 7 percentage points but preserve the broad pattern.
The authors' views do not necessarily represent Norges Bank.
Collateral carries the exposure
A larger land share places more mortgage collateral in the more volatile component.
The authors illustrate that a 30 percent land-price fall reduces property value roughly 16 percent at the 2025 share, versus 10 percent at the 2003 share.
They recommend monitoring land values alongside house prices.
Source: Inferring Land Values in Oslo
IN: