Norwegian firms project 0.3 percent growth across late 2026
Contacts in Norges Bank's Regional Network expect Norwegian output to expand by 0.3 percent in both the third and fourth quarters of 2026. The survey published on September 17 highlights support from defense spending and household purchasing power against weak construction.
Defence and data centres drive activity
Norwegian output will expand at a moderate pace through the second half of 2026, with Regional Network contacts projecting 0.3 percent growth in both the third and fourth quarters.
Activity gains are driven primarily by improved household purchasing power, rising defence expenditure, and ongoing data centre buildout.
In contrast, subdued construction activity continues to dampen the broader expansion.
Across individual industries, all sectors anticipate higher activity ahead, with the sole exception of oil services.
Network contacts project business investment to rise in 2026 and accelerate in 2027, while profitability remains stable.
Labour shortages and capacity recede
Capacity constraints and labor shortages are easing across the Norwegian economy.
Only 28 percent of survey contacts report full capacity utilisation, marking a further decline below historical norms.
Recruitment difficulties have also diminished, with the share of firms struggling to find qualified labor falling to 17 percent.
Consequently, contacts project weak employment growth through the end of 2026.
Annual wage growth expectations stand at 4.5 percent for 2026 before moderating to 4.0 percent in 2027.
Cooling pressures clear rate path
Falling capacity pressures and easing recruitment hurdles confirm that domestic supply strains are unwinding.
Yet wage expectations above four percent will keep service cost pressures persistent.
For Norges Bank, this orderly slowdown removes urgency for immediate policy adjustments.
Source: Minor changes in growth prospects
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