Norges Bank contacts see minor growth changes, stable wage outlook
Norges Bank's Regional Network contacts anticipate minor changes in output growth through summer, with improved prospects from defence and energy investments. Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.2 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027.
Defence and energy investments drive growth
Norges Bank's Regional Network contacts project minor shifts in output growth for the period leading up to summer.
Growth prospects have seen an uplift, primarily fueled by ongoing defence investments, strategic developments in energy supply, and an anticipated increase in household demand.
However, this positive momentum is partially offset by the winding down of projects initiated under the petroleum tax package and a persistent low level of activity within the building construction sector.
The survey also indicates a slight decrease in the proportion of contacts reporting full capacity utilization compared to the previous assessment, alongside a marginal reduction in firms experiencing recruitment challenges.
Sectoral shifts and investment plans
While overall growth is expected to be slightly lower in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the entirety of 2025, contacts foresee a rebound in the second quarter.
This pattern is particularly pronounced among retail trade contacts, who anticipate a substantial dampening in Q1 followed by a recovery in Q2. All sectors, with the exception of oil services, project an increase in activity levels through the summer, marking a slight improvement in construction prospects since the last survey.
Furthermore, contacts expect investment levels to be somewhat higher in 2026 than in 2025, with a further increase projected for 2027.
Overall profitability among the surveyed contacts has shown a moderate strengthening since the first quarter of 2025.