Gupta sees India outpacing peers as global buffers thin
India combines strong growth with declining debt, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta told the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit. She warned that energy disruption, AI exposures and rising borrowing costs test global resilience.
Growth holds as inflation returns
Gupta cited International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts of 7.0 percent Indian growth in both 2026-27 and 2027-28, against global growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027.
India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects 7.1 percent for 2026-27, up 0.4 percentage point from August.
Output grew 7.8 percent in 2025-26 and April-June 2026; quarterly fixed investment rose 11.9 percent and exports 12.0 percent.
September headline inflation reached 5.5 percent and core inflation 4.3 percent.
The MPC raised the repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50 percent in October.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said calibrated tightening rules out near-term cuts, leaving an increase or pause.
Gupta credited domestic demand, stronger policy frameworks and reduced oil intensity for resilience.
Debt falls while banks withstand stress
India's public debt is projected to fall from 84.3 percent of GDP in 2025-26 to 75.1 percent in 2031-32; global debt stood at 94 percent in 2025 and is projected to exceed 100 percent in 2030.
Gupta cited India's roughly 11 percent nominal growth and 7 percent effective borrowing rate.
Bank capital adequacy stands at 17.7 percent, with gross bad loans at 1.8 percent.
Under the RBI's severe stress scenario, 46 major banks retain about 13 percent capital adequacy by March 2028, above the 9 percent minimum, while bad loans reach about 4 percent.
Resilience does not remove exposure
Gupta's distinction is between resilience and the buffers available for another shock.
She identified energy disruption, concentrated AI investment and rising sovereign borrowing costs as global risks.
India remains exposed to financial spillovers, cyber risks and climate events despite its stronger starting position.