Jansson emphasizes inflation focus amid global uncertainty
Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson emphasized a clear focus on inflation and adopted a wait-and-see approach at the latest monetary policy meeting. Speaking at Danske Bank on March 31, 2026, he noted the policy rate was left unchanged due to global uncertainties.
Global conflict shapes policy
The war in Iran is changing the conditions for monetary policy both in Sweden and abroad.
In the Riksbank's main scenario, the war has a moderate impact on the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, but it is still unclear what the more long-term consequences will be and conditions can change rapidly.
Overall, it was therefore reasonable to leave the policy rate and the interest rate path unchanged, Deputy Governor Per Jansson stated at Danske Bank.
He emphasized that the range of potential outcomes is very large, making a clear focus on inflation paramount in these uncertain times.
Rising energy and input prices, coupled with disruptions in important logistics chains in the Gulf region, pose a risk of feeding into consumer prices relatively quickly, potentially causing both indirect and second-round effects.
Jansson recalled the rapid inflation surge in 2022, stressing the importance of learning from that episode, even though the current situation is not yet as dramatic.
Inflationary pressures remain low
Despite global risks, Mr Jansson highlighted that recent inflation outcomes and indicators show currently low inflationary pressures in Sweden.
This allows the Riksbank to tolerate a certain increase in these pressures without them becoming excessive.
He welcomed the economic recovery that gained traction last year, providing a more stable backdrop.
Finding the right balance and timing for monetary policy is a significant challenge under these circumstances.
"In this situation, it is important not to act hastily and then have to make a U-turn, or to be late and fall behind the curve," he cautioned.
This careful approach guided the decision at the most recent monetary policy meeting in March.
Prudence in an unpredictable world
Jansson's wait-and-see approach is a pragmatic response to high uncertainty, prioritizing stability over premature action.
While it offers flexibility, the strategy risks being perceived as indecisive if global conditions deteriorate rapidly.
The true test will be the Riksbank's agility in adjusting its "mildly expansionary" stance when clearer signals emerge.