Policy rate held at 1.75 percent as rate path shifts upward
Sweden’s policy rate remains unchanged at 1.75 percent following the Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board’s September 24 decision, but policymakers project increases will begin before year-end. The decision applies from September 30, 2026.
Upward revision to the policy rate path
The Executive Board held the policy rate at 1.75 percent, effective September 30, 2026, while adjusting its path toward faster tightening.
The Riksbank projects policy rate increases will start in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the quarterly average reaching 1.85 percent.
Projections for the policy rate stand at 2.3 percent for 2027 and 2.4 percent for 2028, revised up from 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent in June.
Economic output expanded faster than anticipated in the second quarter, prompting an increase in the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent.
CPIF inflation is projected at 1.5 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027, with unemployment forecast to decline to 8.1 percent by 2027.
External shocks and currency pressure
Persistent supply disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East continue to elevate global cost pressures.
Energy prices have increased, with higher costs for oil, fuel and electricity, while the Swedish krona has weakened further.
Low headline inflation figures largely reflect temporary fiscal measures; adjusted for these interventions, underlying price pressures remain close to the 2 percent target.
The Executive Board stated that stronger domestic demand amplifies the pass-through of external cost shocks to consumer prices.
A hold in name only
The Riksbank leaves rates unchanged today, but its upwardly revised trajectory makes clear that monetary easing is over.
Persistent energy shocks and a weak krona force policymakers to prioritize price stability over domestic momentum.
Swedish households and businesses must now prepare for higher borrowing costs before the year ends.
Source: Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
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