Larger fuel shock spreads less inflation than in 2022
South African Reserve Bank (SARB) research finds that the 2026 fuel shock produced less widespread inflation than in 2022. Prices excluding fuel rose 2.4 percent over six months, versus 4.3 percent in 2022, but exceeded the pace consistent with the 3 percent target.
Less breadth, persistent pressure
Keletso Morwane and Rudi Steinbach track 389 consumer price items excluding petrol and diesel over six months after February 2026.
Prices rose in 75.1 percent of items, versus 86.3 percent in 2022; 47.8 percent exceeded the target-consistent pace, versus 63.2 percent.
Descriptive CPI-weighted fuel pass-through was 8.3 percent, against 15.1 percent.
Food prices rose 1.2 percent, core goods 1.6 percent and services 2.9 percent, compared with 8.4, 3.4 and 2.7 percent respectively in 2022.
Core prices rose 2.5 percent, versus 3.0 percent.
Recent increases accounted for about 65 percent of annual inflation excluding fuel, versus 66 percent in 2022.
The inflation targets used were 3 percent for 2026 and 4.5 percent for 2022.
Oil doubles, buffers hold
After US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Brent rose from January's $67 average to $138 in early April, averaging $102 in September.
Refinery margins nearly tripled and the basic fuel price doubled.
Petrol rose R3.06 per litre in April and R3.27 in May despite temporary levy relief.
Unlike in 2022, the rand largely held at R16–R16.50 per dollar.
Grain surpluses and easing foot-and-mouth disease effects contained food inflation.
Some services pressures predated the shock; the analysis is descriptive, not causal.
Six months is not closure
Narrower price dispersion does not establish that the shock has run its course.
The authors warn that peak second-round effects often take longer than six months to emerge.
Their policy concern is whether broader increases become embedded through inflation expectations and wage demands.