Oil shocks prolong inflation when pressures spread beyond fuel
South African Reserve Bank (SARB) research finds that food, transport and core goods transmit oil shocks most strongly. After the 2022 shock, 55.0 percent of assessed consumer price categories remained above half their peak inflation response two years later.
Three shocks, different inflation paths
Mathias Manguzvane, Koketso Mantsena and Mpho Rapapali compare South African inflation around the 2008, 2011 and 2022 oil shocks.
Their descriptive event study uses Statistics South Africa monthly data from January 2007 to December 2025, measuring deviations from six-month pre-shock averages over 24 months.
Headline inflation peaked 5.1, 2.6 and 2.4 percentage points above those averages after nine, 13 and five months, respectively.
Food inflation peaks reached 8.3, 9.1 and 7.3 percentage points; core goods reached 6.7, 4.5 and 3.6 points.
Food, transport and core goods were the main transmission channels.
Core goods responded earlier and more strongly than core services.
Price levels remained permanently higher even after inflation moderated.
Persistence outlasts the fuel shock
After 24 months, 66.7 percent of assessed categories remained above half their peak response in 2008, versus 61.1 percent in 2011 and 55.0 percent in 2022.
Coverage differs, limiting comparability.
The SARB raised its repo rate by 475 basis points between November 2021 and May 2023, but the study cannot isolate monetary policy's contribution to lower persistence.
The authors note that the 2026 US-Iran conflict shock began with lower inflation and inflation expectations than in 2008 and 2011; they recommend monitoring pressures beyond fuel.
History is not a forecast
These historical comparisons do not establish causal oil-price pass-through.
Concurrent food shocks, exchange-rate movements and policy responses prevent a clean attribution.
For 2026, the authors identify broader food, transport-intensive services and core goods inflation as persistence risks to monitor.