Refinery closures raise South Africa fuel import bill by R76 billion
South Africa's operational refining capacity has halved to 250,000 barrels per day, pushing refined product imports above 50 percent of domestic demand. A South African Reserve Bank note finds the shift added R76 billion to the oil import bill between 2021 and 2024.
Two plants left standing
Operational refining output is now concentrated at Sasol's Secunda facility (150,000 barrels per day) and Astron Energy's Cape Town plant (100,000 b/d).
The shutdown of SAPREF, PetroSA's Mossel Bay unit, and Natref, alongside the conversion of Enref into an import terminal, cut operational capacity from 720,000 b/d to 250,000 b/d.
Refined petroleum imports peaked at 81 percent of total oil imports in 2022.
Because refined fuels trade at an average 12 percent premium over crude oil, or R156 per barrel, the shift increased South Africa's cumulative import bill by R76 billion between 2021 and 2024 compared to a baseline 75 percent crude processing share.
Industrial fallout across supply chains
Regulatory uncertainty around the Clean Fuels II programme, which was repeatedly delayed from 2017 to 2027 without cost-recovery rules, accelerated divestment by operators.
The closures eliminated 2,150 direct industrial jobs and put 3,300 indirect positions at risk across contractors and logistics.
Petroleum manufacturing fell from 27 percent of sector output in 2013 to 20 percent.
South Africa also transitioned from a net exporter to a total importer of bitumen, complicating infrastructure maintenance.
A costly erosion of resilience
Regulatory paralysis turned manageable plant upgrades into a permanent macroeconomic liability.
Importing finished fuels strips away domestic terms-of-trade buffers and leaves the rand exposed to external price shocks.
Rebuilding resilience now requires fixing rigid fuel regulations rather than chasing unviable mega-refinery projects.