Brazilian 2026 inflation forecast eases to 5.00 percent

The median forecast for 2026 IPCA inflation declined to 5.00 percent from 5.01 percent in the prior week, according to the Focus Market Readout published on September 4, 2026.

Growth expectations for 2026 gross domestic product ticked up to 1.93 percent from 1.92 percent.

Analysts maintained their 2026 Selic target projection at 13.75 percent for a fifth consecutive week, alongside a stable exchange rate projection of 5.20 reais per US dollar.

For 2027, the IPCA projection rose for a fourth week to 4.29 percent from 4.28 percent, while the projected 2027 Selic rate held at 12.00 percent.

The 2026 primary budget deficit estimate remained steady at 0.50 percent of GDP, with net public debt projected at 69.90 percent of GDP.

Longer-term projections show inflation moving toward target, with IPCA projected at 3.80 percent for 2028 and 3.50 percent for 2029.

Over those horizons, the terminal Selic rate is projected at 10.50 percent and 10.00 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the 12-month smoothed inflation projection increased for a fifth consecutive week to 4.60 percent from 4.53 percent.

External accounts remained largely unchanged, with the 2026 trade surplus forecast at $77.00 billion and foreign direct investment at $80.00 billion.