Banco de España publishes analysis priorities for 2025-30
The Banco de España has published its analysis priorities for the next five years, outlining four main thematic areas. These priorities will guide the institution's economic research and analytical work from 2025 to 2030.
Four pillars for future analysis
The Banco de España has identified four interrelated broad thematic areas to guide its research.
The first, 'Pillars of central banking,' covers the institution's core functions, including contributions to European Central Bank monetary policy, banking supervision, macroprudential policy, payment systems, and financial education.
The second area, 'European resilience in a changing world,' addresses global shifts like pandemics, wars, and economic fragmentation, alongside profound changes such as digitalisation, artificial intelligence (AI), and green and energy transitions.
The third focuses on 'Challenges facing the Spanish economy,' specifically productivity, the labor and housing markets, demographic shifts, and public finance sustainability.
Finally, 'Global trends' examines the economic and financial impacts of climate change, ageing, and trade fragmentation through multidisciplinary lenses.
This comprehensive framework aims to align the Banco de España's work with its evolving economic, financial, and geopolitical environment.
Modernizing research methodologies
To strengthen its analytical work, the Banco de España will enhance economic modelling by incorporating uncertainty, alternative scenarios, and tail risk analysis.
The institution plans to use granular data more extensively, combining administrative sources with business and household surveys.
A key focus will be considering heterogeneity in analysis, acknowledging differing policy impacts across various economic agents.
Furthermore, the Banco de España will adopt recent technological and methodological advances, including AI, data science, machine learning, and large language models (LLMs).
Multidisciplinary approaches, particularly from the social sciences, will also be integrated.
A timely roadmap, but challenges remain
The Banco de España's proactive approach to defining research priorities is commendable, offering clarity in an uncertain global landscape.
However, the true test lies in the effective implementation of these ambitious methodologies, particularly the integration of advanced AI and multidisciplinary approaches.
While the framework provides flexibility, its success will hinge on continuous adaptation and the ability to translate complex research into actionable policy insights.