New database offers global and bilateral geopolitical risk indices

This paper presents a comprehensive database of general and bilateral geopolitical risk (GPR) indices for 34 countries, built using a standardized textual analysis methodology.

The indices are derived from a dictionary-based approach applied to national press articles accessed via the Factiva platform, with queries translated into 15 languages to ensure linguistic and cultural relevance.

This global dataset, covering approximately 78 percent of global GDP, offers high-frequency, media-based indicators of geopolitical risk.

It captures both the intensity of geopolitical tensions as perceived in domestic media narratives and the specific origin of these threats through bilateral indices.

The methodology ensures cross-country comparability by standardizing source selection, language translation, and query construction, making it a scalable and transparent tool for researchers and policymakers.

The work builds on previous research, particularly Alonso-Alvarez et al. (2025), which introduced a novel framework for measuring GPR, and addresses limitations of existing global indices like Caldara and Iacoviello (2022).

While earlier indices often reflect a predominantly Western perspective, this database emphasizes local-language sources to better capture country-specific narratives and perceptions of geopolitical tensions.

Bilateral indices focus on four key regions—Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Western Bloc—quantifying how each country perceives external geopolitical threats.

This directionality is crucial for understanding the exact channels through which geopolitical risk is transmitted to home economies.