AI financing links amplify risks beyond corporate balance sheets
AI investment increasingly links suppliers, customers and financiers through circular funding and future commitments. An October 27, 2026 Bank of Spain paper by Irene Pablos Nuevo documents the resulting financial vulnerabilities.
Capital spending meets future obligations
Capital expenditure among sampled firms rose from around $160 billion in 2019 to nearly $600 billion in 2025, measured across consolidated businesses rather than AI alone.
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle accounted for around $400 billion in 2025.
Investment exceeded 60 percent of aggregate operating cash flows, with substantial differences across firms.
Bond issuance reached almost $150 billion in 2025; including convertibles, issuance approached $230 billion in the first half of 2026.
Citing Moody's Ratings, the paper reports $969 billion in future data center lease commitments at the five major hyperscalers.
Of these, $662 billion concerned leases not yet commenced and therefore not recognized on balance sheets.
Shared funding, intertwined revenues
The sample recorded 144 co-investments involving non-bank financial institutions in 2025, totaling $240 billion; around 40 percent of deals lacked disclosed values.
Venture capital represented around 88 percent of transactions.
Suppliers also finance customers whose spending supports their revenues.
Joint ventures and special-purpose vehicles distribute infrastructure risks, but guarantees and contractual obligations retain exposures.
Consolidated data mix AI and non-AI activities, while circular financing can double-count gross investment.
Debt metrics miss commitments
The paper identifies future cash generation as the condition sustaining AI investment and financing.
Circular funding and off-balance-sheet structures obscure ultimate exposures.
Its descriptive evidence supports closer monitoring, not a quantified estimate of systemic losses.