BOC survey reveals persistent consumer concerns on prices and trade
The Bank of Canada's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates persistent consumer concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to trade conflict. Respondents reported weaker spending plans and a higher perceived likelihood of missing debt payments or losing jobs.
Consumers remain pessimistic amid high prices
The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator remains subdued in the fourth quarter of 2025, staying well below its pre-pandemic average since late 2021 due to ongoing perceptions of a high cost of living.
Consumers reported a higher likelihood of missing a debt payment and a deterioration in their financial situation.
One respondent noted, 'Almost everybody's living on credit…. It's something that's going to be detrimental for households.'
Consistent with this, spending plans continue to be weak, with the CSCE consumer spending index falling slightly.
High prices, economic uncertainty, and elevated housing costs remain the top reported barriers to spending.
Trade tensions weigh on labor and inflation outlook
The CSCE labour market index saw a slight rise but remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
Consumers perceived a higher chance of voluntarily leaving or finding a job, but also an increased likelihood of job loss, particularly in sectors reliant on Canada-US trade.
Near-term inflation expectations persist above pre-pandemic levels, while long-term expectations have softened.
Tariffs and trade tensions are still the most cited drivers of inflation, but less so than last quarter.
Consumers aware of counter-tariff removals reported lower inflation expectations, yet most do not anticipate price decreases.