ECBPaper
New ECB-BIG index measures euro area credit conditions
The ECB has introduced the Broad Intermediation Gauge (ECB-BIG) index to provide a timely assessment of credit conditions across euro area banks and non-banks.
AI Paper Curation
BDFPaper
Red Sea closure costs Egypt 3 percent as global trade adapts
A Banque de France study reveals that a permanent Red Sea closure lowers real income for major economies by less than 0.02 percent.
DNBPaper
Green public spending multiplier exceeds one within a year
A De Nederlandsche Bank working paper finds that green public procurement yields a cumulative GDP multiplier above one within a year, while brown procurement has virtually zero impact.
ECBPaper
Combined risk factor models boost euro area tail forecast accuracy
An ESCB expert group has developed a Macro-at-Risk framework using 350 indicators to model tail risks surrounding euro area growth and inflation projections.
ECBPaper
Network financial frictions triple monetary policy impact
An ECB study shows that financial frictions across production networks amplify the impact of monetary policy on prices and output, with network effects dominating direct sector leverage by a factor of three.
ECBPaper
ECBPaper
Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored after energy shock
An ECB Economic Bulletin analysis shows that longer-term euro area inflation expectations remain broadly anchored across consumers, firms and professional forecasters following recent energy price shocks.
ECBPaper
Euro area youth unemployment climbs to 15.1 percent
The euro area youth unemployment rate reached 15.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 as overall labor demand cooled.
ECBPaper
Narrow fiscal space limits euro area energy shock response
Euro area governments have deployed minimal fiscal support of 0.1 percent of GDP following the 2026 Middle East energy shock, as elevated borrowing costs and a 3.3 percent structural deficit constrain fiscal policy compared to the 2022 energy crisis.
ECBPaper
Key interest rates held at 2.25 percent as energy shock lingers
The European Central Bank kept its key deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25 percent at its July meeting.
ECBPaper
Policy uncertainty subtracts 0.4 percentage points from euro area GDP
A new ECB Economic Bulletin article shows that policy uncertainty shocks subtracted roughly 0.4 percentage points from euro area GDP growth in 2025.
BISPaper
Unanchored inflation expectations double energy shock impact on prices
A Bank for International Settlements study shows that global energy supply shocks produce more than double the impact on core inflation when household inflation expectations exceed central bank targets.