US tariffs trigger limited Chinese trade diversion to ASEAN and Africa
A new ECB study finds that US tariffs introduced in 2025 led to a decline in Chinese exports to the United States. Overall Chinese exports remained strong, driven by limited trade diversion to other markets, particularly ASEAN and Africa, and other underlying trends.
Chinese exports defy US tariff impact
Chinese export performance remained robust in 2025, growing by 5.5 percent, an increase from 4.6 percent in 2024. This resilience, however, masked significant divergence across destination markets.
Exports to the United States saw a sharp 20 percent decline, amounting to USD 104 billion less than in 2024. In contrast, exports to other regions showed strong growth: 8 percent for the euro area (an increase of USD 32 billion), 13 percent for ASEAN countries (comparable to the US decline), 7 percent for Latin America, and a substantial 26 percent for Africa (an expansion of USD 46 billion).
To assess whether US tariffs caused trade diversion, the study employed a product-level panel model with fixed effects, analyzing global imports of Chinese products from January to September 2025.
Beyond tariffs: other drivers of export strength
While US tariffs had a direct negative impact, reducing US imports from China by an estimated 9 percent, the observed 17 percent decline suggests other factors were at play, including heightened policy uncertainty and weaker US demand.
Evidence of broad-based trade diversion to other markets remains limited.
A statistically significant positive effect was identified only for African and ASEAN countries, with a modest and insignificant impact on the euro area.
However, at a more granular level, particularly for consumer goods, higher US tariffs on Chinese products are associated with increased exports to other markets.
The limited diversion to ASEAN countries may reflect trade rerouting, where Chinese intermediate goods are processed there before reaching the US.
Limited diversion, broader trends
This analysis confirms that while US tariffs impacted direct trade, their broader effect on global trade redirection remains marginal.
The observed resilience in Chinese exports is primarily due to pre-existing trends like weak domestic demand and enhanced competitiveness, not significant tariff-induced shifts.
Policymakers should therefore focus on these underlying economic forces rather than expecting tariffs alone to reshape global supply chains.