Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored after energy shock
An ECB Economic Bulletin analysis shows that longer-term euro area inflation expectations remain broadly anchored across consumers, firms and professional forecasters following recent energy price shocks. While short-term expectations moved upward, longer-term metrics showed limited sensitivity.
Divergent reactions across survey groups
Across consumers, firms, and professional forecasters, level anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations broadly holds.
Consumers reacted most strongly to the recent Middle East energy price shock, yet their term structure remained downward-sloping.
Longer-term expectations of firms and professional forecasters barely moved.
In the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, one-year ahead inflation expectations for firms rose from 2.6 percent to 3.0 percent in early 2026, while three-year expectations held steady at 3.0 percent.
Disagreement among professional forecasters stayed below long-term averages.
High-inflation tail risks, defined as expectations above 5.0 percent for non-professionals and 2.5 percent for forecasters, ticked up but stayed below 2022-2023 peak levels.
Echoes of the 2022 price surge
The current energy shock triggered smaller revisions than the post-2022 inflation shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
During that previous crisis, gas prices peaked between August and October 2022, causing persistent inflation expectations starting from higher baseline levels.
Regression analysis reveals that while consumer long-term expectations typically react to short-term shifts, this sensitivity weakened recently.
Professional forecasters remain essentially immune to short-term swings, preserving structural stability.
Reassuring data, fragile trust
Reassuring metrics should not blind policymakers to household fragility.
Scar tissue from the 2022 inflation shock leaves non-professional expectations vulnerable to new price shocks.
The ECB must monitor these divergent signals closely before claiming full victory over de-anchoring.