ECB evaluates Consumer Expectations Survey pilot phase
The European Central Bank has published a first evaluation of its new Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). The paper details the survey's key features and assesses results from its pilot phase, covering household economic behaviour, inflation, and labor markets.
Unlocking household economic behavior
The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is a new, important tool for analyzing euro area household economic behaviour and expectations.
Launched as a pilot in January 2020, this online, mixed-frequency modular survey covers critical areas including consumption, income, inflation, GDP growth, the labour market, housing market activity, and consumer finance.
Its structure ensures harmonised quantitative and qualitative data collection, facilitating timely cross-country comparisons across the six largest euro area countries, involving 10,000 individual respondents.
The CES proved particularly useful during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing insights into the crisis's impact on households and the effectiveness of policy responses.
This paper offers a first evaluation of the pilot phase, concluding that the CES has achieved its main objectives and demonstrated substantial benefits for ECB policy analysis.
From pilot to permanent survey
The pilot phase of the CES successfully confirmed the high quality of its data and its ability to fill important knowledge gaps in euro area household analysis.
This led the ECB Executive Board to endorse the survey's continuation in March 2021.
A development phase from July 2021 to December 2023 aims for enhancements, including increased sample size and broader country and topical coverage.
The survey's fieldwork was outsourced to Ipsos Public Affairs, benefiting from international best practices.
Future plans include publishing aggregate results on the ECB's website and making anonymised micro data available to external researchers.
Solid foundation, but challenges remain
The Consumer Expectations Survey represents a vital advancement for the ECB's understanding of household dynamics and their implications for monetary policy.
However, the paper candidly highlights ongoing challenges, particularly in ensuring full demographic representativeness.
Addressing these identified areas for improvement will be crucial for the survey's long-term analytical robustness.