Euro area working-age population to drop to 175 million by 2100
The euro area population is projected to peak at 361.4 million in 2037 before declining to 358 million by 2050, according to the latest EUROPOP 2025 demographic projections published in the ECB Economic Bulletin. Lower fertility rates will offset recent upward revisions to net immigration.
The fertility slump outweighs migration
The euro area old-age dependency ratio is projected to rise from 35 percent in 2025 to 51 percent in 2050 and 62 percent by 2100. This shift reduces the ratio of working-age individuals per elderly person from nearly three today to around two in 2050.
The working-age cohort aged 15-64 is projected to shrink from 228 million in 2025 to 175 million by 2100. This contraction is driven by record-low fertility rates, which fell to 1.33 children per woman in 2024.
In the largest downward revision since 2008, 13 million fewer children are projected to be born between 2020 and 2050 compared with baseline estimates, leading to heavy population drops in Germany and Italy.
A temporary reprieve from migration
Higher net immigration provides temporary relief, with annual inflows revised up from 1.2 million to 1.4 million people through 2050.
Spain accounts for more than half of this revision, absorbing one-third of total euro area net migration.
While 77 percent of migrants are of working age, these flows remain cyclical and uncertain.
Public age-related spending is projected to rise by 1.3 percentage points to 26.4 percent of GDP by 2050, driven by pensions and long-term care costs.
Immigration will not save pension systems
Short-term migration gains offer only a fleeting fiscal reprieve before aging costs accelerate.
Relying on sustained high inward flows is dangerous given cyclical volatility and shifting political barriers.
Euro area governments must enforce structural pension reforms now rather than count on demographic miracles.