Inflation forecasts rise to 3.0 percent for 2026
Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank (ECB) raised near-term inflation forecasts, mainly reflecting higher energy prices and indirect effects. Longer-term headline and core inflation expectations remain at 2.0 percent.
Energy lifts the inflation path
For 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2031 respectively, headline inflation forecasts are 3.0, 2.6, 2.0 and 2.0 percent; revisions are +0.3, +0.4, zero and zero percentage points.
Core inflation forecasts are 2.4, 2.5, 2.2 and 2.0 percent, revised by zero, +0.2, +0.1 and zero points.
Wage growth forecasts are 3.3, 3.1, 2.8 and 2.7 percent, revised by +0.1, +0.1, zero and -0.2 points.
Core inflation excludes energy and food.
Respondents to a repeated question on the Middle East war anticipate additional energy shock effects mainly in 2027, with limited second-round effects.
They see inflation risks tilted upwards for 2026-28 and more balanced thereafter.
The forecasts leave longer-term headline and core inflation expectations unchanged at 2.0 percent.
Growth improves across near-term horizons
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2031 are 1.0, 1.3, 1.3 and 1.3 percent respectively.
Revisions are +0.4, +0.1, zero and +0.1 percentage points, with near-term upgrades primarily reflecting recent data.
Respondents anticipate increasing growth in the short run but see downside risks across all horizons.
Unemployment forecasts are 6.4, 6.3, 6.2 and 6.1 percent of the labor force for those same years.
Only 2026 was revised, by +0.1 percentage points; later forecasts remain unchanged.
Unemployment is projected to decline gradually.
Forecasters are not policymakers
The quarterly survey collected 52 responses from European financial and non-financial institution experts between October 2 and 7, 2026.
These forecasts do not represent ECB staff or decision-making bodies.
The next Eurosystem staff projections will be published on December 18, 2026.