ECB forecasters raise 2026 inflation outlook to 2.66 percent
The European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for Q2 2026 shows an upward revision to HICP inflation expectations for 2026. Forecasters now project headline inflation at 2.66 percent for year-end 2026, up from 1.84 percent in the previous survey.
Inflation expectations climb for 2026
Professional forecasters have significantly increased their outlook for euro area HICP inflation in 2026.
The SPF Q2 2026 now anticipates HICP inflation to reach 2.66 percent by year-end 2026, a notable rise from the 1.84 percent projected in the Q1 2026 survey.
This new forecast aligns closely with the March 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections of 2.65 percent.
For 2027, forecasters expect HICP inflation to be 2.13 percent, slightly above the 1.97 percent from the previous survey.
Longer-term inflation expectations for 2030 remain anchored around the ECB's target, with a projection of 2.03 percent.
Core HICP inflation (excluding energy and food) is also revised upwards for 2026 to 2.21 percent, from 2.04 percent in the prior survey, and is expected to be 2.18 percent in 2027.
The longer-term core inflation for 2030 is 2.03 percent.
Growth outlook moderates, energy risks persist
Expectations for real GDP growth have seen a slight moderation for 2026, with forecasters now projecting 0.96 percent, down from 1.20 percent in the Q1 2026 SPF.
The 2027 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.27 percent, a decrease from 1.41 percent previously.
Longer-term GDP growth for 2030 remains stable at 1.27 percent.
The survey highlights that oil and energy prices continue to be the most frequently cited factor influencing the inflation outlook, with 10 mentions.
Labour and wages were cited 4 times, while monetary policy and exchange rates each received 1 mention.
The balance of risks for HICPX inflation and wage growth remains skewed towards the upside in the near term, indicating persistent concerns among forecasters regarding inflationary pressures.